Posts tagged billsimmons
Kobe just one star defying aging curve
Bill Simmons. Again.
What do these three have in common?
They’ve all managed to put off The Change.
I was there when it happened to Julius Erving: Nov. 9, 1984, Philly at Boston, the night his five-year rivalry with Larry Bird went up in smoke. Bird outscored Erving 42-6 in three quarters before words were exchanged and, incredibly, two of the league’s biggest stars started fighting at midcourt. Imagine two kids getting their picture taken with Santa, then imagine their faces if Santa got into a brawl with the Easter Bunny. That was Bird fighting Erving. Their scuffle was so preposterous that it overshadowed the real story: Julius Erving had gone through The Change. He was great, and then he wasn’t. And it happened overnight.
Sift through NBA history and you’ll notice that, for modern superstars, The Change occurred somewhere between the 900th and 1,200th career game (including playoffs) for everyone except Karl Malone and John Stockton, who fended it off because of their extraordinary work ethics, their signature play (an unstoppable pick-and-roll that they could have run into their 50s), Utah’s altitude (which may have given them a conditioning advantage) and the little-known fact John Stockton is actually an alien. An NBA career is really pressure over time: knees are Shawshank’s prison wall, games are Andy’s rock hammer, and that hammer just keeps chipping away. Eventually, your career gives out. That’s the rule.
Or, that was the rule. Because Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant are fending off that rock hammer in ways that have to make us wonder if we’re headed for a historical revamping along the lines of the steroids era blowing up baseball like an “Angry Birds” grenade. Everything we thought we knew about basketball is changing … and for all the right reasons, too. (Well, unless you’re Rashard Lewis and O.J. Mayo.) They are beneficiaries of undeniable advantages over everyone who played before them: better doctors, surgical procedures, dieting, drug testing, trainers, computers, video equipment, workout equipment, workout regiments, airplanes … even pillows are better.
Check out the career numbers (regular season and playoffs) for Allen, Pierce, Nash, Nowitzki and Bryant for games, minutes, minutes per game and seasons played.
AGING STARS
RS Min = regular season minutes; PL Min = playoff minutes; RS MPG = regular season minutes per game; PL MPG = playoffs minutes per game
PlayerGamesPlayoffsRS MinPL MinRS MPGPL MPGSeasonsBryant106719838,8877,81136.539.414Allen106710139,5353,98737.139.515Nash105711833,0554,22831.335.815Nowitzki95610334,9804,30136.641.812Pierce92910134,4804,03237.139.912
All right, get ready for a second group of perimeter stars that also includes two other pieces of information: the season they went through The Change, as well as their drop in win shares from the previous season. (Note: I’m not a huge fan of win shares, especially because the stat doesn’t show how someone like Jason Kidd or Gary Payton slipped defensively almost overnight, but it’s the simplest statistical way to show a player’s decline.) And keep in mind, Bird’s career and Magic’s career ended prematurely; Jordan missed multiple seasons because of his two retirements; and Kidd is obviously still playing (post-Change). Anyway …
STARS OF YESTERDAY
Change = Season in which “The Change” in the player’s productivity took place; WS = Decline in win shares from the previous season.
PlayerGamesPlayRS MinPL MinRS MPGPL MPGSeasonsChangeWSStockton150418247,6746,39831.835.81914-5.6Miller138914447,6195,30834.336.91816-0.8Payton133515447,4175,48235.335.61713-3.5Erving124318945,2277,35236.438.91614-2.5Kidd123112145,5104,95337.040.91714-3.4Pippen117820841,0698,10534.939.01712-1.7Drexler108614537,5375,57234.638.41513-5.2Wilkins10745638,1132,17235.538.81513-2.1Jordan107217941,0107,47438.341.81514-12.5Thomas97911135,5164,21636.338.01312-2.1Iverson9147637,4853,20541.145.11413-8.5Magic90616033,2457,53836.739.71313-11.8Bird89716434,4436,88638.442.01310-14.5
Translation: If you’re a perimeter guy, no matter how talented you are, you should go downhill between Season 12 and Season 14 unless you’re a freak shooter (like Miller) or an actual alien (like Stockton). So how do you explain our five aforementioned career freaks? Let’s look at them again through last Wednesday’s games measured by the per-36 minute averages for points/rebounds/assists, field goals/free throws/3s attempted, and percentages for field goals/free throws/3s, as well as advanced metrics for usage rate (the percentage of possessions which involve that player when he’s on the floor), player efficiency and win shares per 48 minutes:
ALMOST AS GOOD AS EVER
Player/Yr/AgePtsAstRebFGAFTA3PAFG%3P%RatePERWS/48Kobe ‘08 (29)26.25.05.819.18.44.746%36%31.424.2.208Kobe ‘11 (32)27.15.25.520.78.14.446%31%34.324.7.198 Allen ‘08 (32)17.53.13.713.53.36.245%40%21.616.4.177Allen ‘11 (35)17.43.13.712.52.94.851%45%20.417.9.182 Nash ‘08 (34)17.811.63.712.53.04.750%47%22.021.1.181Nash ‘11 (37)18.912.84.012.74.12.753%42%23.224.3.195 Dirk ‘08 (29)23.63.58.617.17.12.948%36%28.824.6.223Dirk ‘11 (32)24.22.57.416.96.42.852%39%29.023.7.200 Pierce ‘08 (30)19.74.55.113.86.14.648%36%24.819.6.207Pierce ‘11 (33)19.23.55.413.55.33.751%43%23.620.9.222
I know, I know. You expected a sports column, not an AP math exam. But for each player, the differences between 2008 and 2011 are so subtle, you can barely tell the years apart. If Jennifer Aniston looks as good three years from now as she does right now, you’ll know she had some work done. If Obama’s hair doesn’t look any grayer than it does right now, you’ll know he colored it. But five elite players defying all laws of career gravity like that?
Really, it’s the first wave of something Malcolm Gladwell and I tackled 13 months ago, when we wondered if Kobe’s generation would accomplish things we had never seen before. I listed those modern advantages (training, dieting, etc) and mentioned that basketball players have a better chance of succeeding now. Gladwell piggybacked the point by bringing up capitalization rates (how efficiently any group makes use of its talent), deciding that “there isn’t more talent than before, but there is — for a variety of reasons — a more efficient use of talent.” Somehow we never connected the dots to Gladwell’s concept of outliers: that outside factors can affect someone’s success or failure more than we realize.
Nash, Pierce, Kobe, Allen and Nowitzki? NBA outliers. All of them. Their extended primes might last 15-20 percent longer than anything we’ve seen from a perimeter player before. A closer look………
The NBA/The All Star Game/More Bill Simmons
2 Separate items.
I never thought the 1987 NBA All-Star Game could be topped. On its 20th anniversary, my retroactive running diary included this paragraph:
“For the love of God, LOOK at those lineups again. You had Magic and Bird in their absolute primes. You had MJ during the season when he won the dunk contest, averaged 37 a game and put himself on the map as The Next Great Guy. You had Barkley and Hakeem in their breakout seasons. You had Isiah, McHale, Parish, Worthy and Nique at their absolute peaks. You had Moses, Kareem, English, Cheeks and Walter Davis with something left in the tank. You had Doctor J in his final All-Star appearance. You had six guys who ended up making the NBA’s ‘Top 50’ list on the bench to start the game. You had John Stockton, Joe Dumars, Patrick Ewing, Fat Lever, Clyde Drexler, Terry Cummings, Sidney Moncrief and Karl Malone watching from home because THEY WEREN’T GOOD ENOUGH TO BE INVITED. Will we ever see anything approaching this again? I say no.”
Fast-forward 24 years: Thanks to a talent boon and modern science extending the primes of players who should have been more washed up than the “Fockers” franchise by now, next month’s All-Star Game will absolutely approach “this.” We won’t see three of the best five players ever at their peaks or soon-to-be-peaks, but put it this way: The great Tim Duncan is looming as the worst All-Star on a 2011 team. That’s when I’m forced to break one of my steadfast rules (“Never waste a column on All-Star selections”) and break this baby down.
Here we go …
Q: You’re really wasting a column on this? When was the last time anyone truly cared about the NBA All-Star Game?
A: I’ve attended every All-Star Weekend since 2004 but skipped Sunday’s game three of those times. Why? I’m old enough to remember when the game mattered. I hate watching half-assed basketball. I hate seeing something potentially meaningful be squandered. Ideally, the game should showcase the league’s biggest stars, entertain its fans and take something of a snapshot of that specific season.
Who is that season’s alpha dog? Which players absolutely have to play at crunch time? Which young guys have vaulted into The Discussion? Which older guys are fading from The Discussion? Which guys have a game that translates into any situation, and conversely, which guys wouldn’t be that fun to play with?
So why hasn’t the game been doing that? Our last meaningful one happened in 2001, when a new generation of franchise guys tried to seize control of the post-Jordan era. All of them were looking for the upper hand like Marlo after Avon went to the clink. Kobe wanted to show that he wasn’t just riding Shaq’s coattails. Ex-teammates Vince and T-Mac wanted to prove they didn’t need each other. Duncan, C-Webb and Garnett were vying for the “Best Power Forward Alive” crown; same for Kidd and Payton and the “Best Point Guard Alive” title. Iverson wanted to show everyone that the league now belonged to him. Marbury and Allen wanted to prove they were franchise guys. Throw in the magic of Chocolate City (that year’s host), and everyone went hard. Iverson won the MVP; Kobe emerged as the West’s crunch-time alpha dog; and in the fourth quarter, the East erased a 21-point deficit and ended up winning thanks to two gigantic 3-pointers from … (wait for it) … Stephon Marbury!
Ten years later, the box score doubles as a snapshot of the ensuing decade: The West was almost comically loaded; the East had waaaaaaaaaay too much riding on Iverson, Marbury, McGrady, Allen and Jermaine O’Neal; and there just weren’t enough up-and-coming stars. It’s no wonder the league swooned from 2002 to 2007. The All-Star Game teaches us more than you’d think. This year, it’s going to teach us that the league is obscenely loaded right now.
Dustin (NY)
Most likely to throw a crippling INT this week? Mark Sanchez or Jay Cutler?
Bill Simmons (12:18 PM)
I’d say Cutler - he’ll throw you at least 2 a game, you just have to hold onto them. That was Seattle’s biggest misfire last week, dropping the goal line INT he gave them. KC Joyner did a nice job of breaking down Cutler’s possible flimsiness this week (Insider only): http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2010/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6038319
Latest Bill Simmons: Why Shaq signed with the Celtics, and other theories to chew on
I hate hearing the phrase “There’s no answer.” I can’t accept it. Everything within reason should have an answer. And if you can’t come up with one? Come up with a theory. Without further ado, here’s my newest column gimmick, “Theories I’ve Been Chewing On Lately.”
Chewed-On Theory No. 1: “Why did Shaq sign with the Celtics?”
Notice how that didn’t read “Why did the Celtics sign Shaq?”
I went through the seven stages of grief when the Celtics signed Shaq: shock and denial (“No!”); pain and guilt (“No!!!!!!!!!”); anger and bargaining (“NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!”); depression, reflection and loneliness (“He’s a washed-up coach-killer who couldn’t stop a high screen if you allowed him to use a taser and a billy club”); the upward turn (remembering that the Celtics signed him for the minimum, that he’s eminently tradable or waivable, and that he was taking Shelden Williams’ spot); reconstruction and working through (that he may have been miscast on his two previous teams, and with a bigger/slower/older team like Boston that struggles in the half court, he might be an asset on the low post against certain opponents); and acceptance and hope (that even if only he plays hard versus the three teams against whom he has a grudge — Miami, Los Angeles and Orlando — he could end up being a major asset). I finished the whole cycle in less than 24 hours.
……..
O’Neal signed with Boston because “when I close my book at the end of the day, it’s all about winning and nothing else.” This was someone who told a teammate before the final game of his 2009 Suns season — when they had just been eliminated from playoff contention — that he “needed to start getting in shape for my reality show.” Game 82 and you need to get in shape? Huh? Now you suddenly care about winning titles again? Now you’re fine with swallowing your dignity to be a spare part, a minimum guy, an afterthought, someone with no security at all? Just to chase a ring? When you already have four?
My theory: I think Kobe’s postgame routine got back to Shaq. I think it pissed him off. I think it got his competitive juices flowing for the first time in years. I think he realized Boston was his best chance to tie Kobe at five. I think he wants this more than anything. I think he shows up next month in surprisingly good shape, and I think we’ll be saying in November, “Wow, that Shaq signing may have been a great move by Boston!” And I think this will happen for only one reason: because Shaq hates Kobe and Kobe hates Shaq. Just a theory.
Chewed-On Theory No. 2: Why is the Nolan Ryan/Robin Ventura photo so available?
Chewed-On Theory No. 3: “Why can’t Jennifer Aniston find a man?”
Chewed-On Theory No. 4: “What’s wrong with James Dolan?”
Bill Simmons Mega Mailbag
It’s a two part epic.
Q: Would you have disagreed with an Atlanta Hawks fan assassinating Joe Johnson before he could sign that max $120 million contract?
— Jared, MilwaukeeSG: I disagree with premeditated murder in all forms. Just one of my controversial takes on life. But you did stumble upon a fantastic sports movie idea: A die-hard Minnesota fan tortured by years of losing finally snaps after bumbling Wolves general manager David Kane (played by Greg Kinnear) signs overrated franchise player Ruben Tugg (played by Drake) to a franchise-crippling $120 million deal, then vows on a sports radio show to murder Tugg in the 10 days leading up to July 15 (when Tugg can officially sign the contract), prompting Minneapolis police to send rising star detective Jennie Jamieson (played by Megan Fox) to protect Tugg for those last 10 days … and, of course, Tugg and Jamieson end up falling for each other, much to the chagrin of Jennie’s boss (Bunk from “The Wire”). At the end of the movie, the fan somehow gets into the news conference and tries to shoot Tugg, taking down Kane instead, and eventually gets pardoned by the judge (a longtime Wolves fan) for saving the franchise. I like this concept because it could be a real movie (like a cross between “The Fan,” “Big Fan” and “The Bodyguard”) or a Skinemax thriller (and if that’s the case, we’ll make Jennie and her boss a divorced couple, leading to the climactic sex scene when they get back together at the end). The title of the movie? “Expired Contract.”
Q: The Decision had to be one of the five biggest days in the history of the NBA to not happen on the court. What would be your top 5 for this category? For me it goes like this: 1. Magic announces he has HIV; 2. Jordan’s first retirement; 3. The Decision; 4. Len Bias; 5. Jordan announcing he’s coming back. Your thoughts?
— Luke, Rochester, N.Y.SG: Mine goes like this: (1) Magic/HIV; (2) Bias; (3) “The Decision”; (4) MJ’s 1995 comeback; (5) the day the Fab Five guys decided to wear loose shorts, which eventually persuaded everyone in the NBA except John Stockton to wear loose shorts (and ended the Nut-Hugger Era).
New Simmons:Welcome to the All-LeBron sound-off
That didn’t take long. More funny/sad/insightful reaction to LeBron. Or as Simmons calls it, the LeBacle.
LeBron.
::shakes head:::
I haven’t see a hand overplayed this badly since MacArthur crossed the 38th parallel. Best excerpt below (h/t Adam).
We are already fools for caring about athletes considerably more than they care about us. We know this, and we do it anyway. We just like sports. We keep watching for moments like Donovan’s goal against Algeria, and we keep caring through thick and thin for moments like Roberts’ Steal and Tracy Porter’s interception. We put up with all the sobering stuff because that’s the price you pay — for every Gordon Hayward half-court shot, or USA-Canada gold-medal game, there are 20 Michael Vicks and Ben Roethlisbergers. Last night didn’t make me like sports any less — my guard has been up since 1996 — it just reinforced all the things I already didn’t like.
For LeBron not to understand what he was doing — or even worse, not to care — made me quickly turn off the television, find my kids, give them their nightly bath and try to forget the sports atrocity that I had just witnessed. He just couldn’t have handled it worse. Never in my life can I remember someone swinging from likable to unlikable that quickly. I will forgive him some day because I like watching him play basketball, and whether you’re rooting for or against him, his alliance with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami created one the greatest “Holy s—-, how is this going to play out?????” scenarios in recent sports history. Sports are supposed to be fun, and eventually, this will become fun — for everyone but people in Cleveland — because we finally have a Yankees of basketball.
But I will never, ever, not in a million years, understand why it had to play out that way. If LeBron James is the future of sports, then I shudder for the future.
Bill Simmons on World Cup: "Soccer is Ready to Capture Our Attention"
Worth noting that he wrote this 20 questions piece AFTER the US loss to Ghana…..
New(ish) Bill Simmons
His Memorial Day mega-mailbag. Go ahead and write off 30 minutes if you click this link.
New Bill Simmons: The idiot's guide to Russian Mark Cuban
Question: You only have written Idiot’s Guides on ESPN.com for three things: the Gold Club trial, the NHL lockout and Anucha Browne Sanders’ lawsuit against Isiah Thomas. What makes Mutant Russian Mark Cuban so worthy?
Answer: MRMC won me over when I found out that …
(A) He can’t type.
(B) He doesn’t have a computer in his office.
(C) He doesn’t own a cell phone.
(D) He doesn’t have an e-mail address or a Twitter account.
(E) He enjoys writing letters.
(F) Even after taking over the Nets, he plans on living in Russia for most of the year.
(G) He only plans on attending about 10 NBA games a season.
Q: Hold on a second … he’s electronically illiterate and plans on running the Nets from about 10,000 miles away, and you don’t think this is going to be a complete disaster?
A: Actually, no. He’s a sharp dude. He says things that make sense. For instance …
MRMC on the NBA salary cap: “You could have all the money in the world, but you have to be smart enough knowing how to spend it. I really try to be on that smart money side. Once you make a serious mistake you can suffer five or six years, and I do my best to avoid serious mistakes.”
(Translation: Sorry, Amar’e, Rudy, Joe and Carlos — you won’t be getting a max contract from me this summer. Sorry, Philadelphia, you’re not talking me into trading for Elton. And sorry, Washington, I won’t be taking Gilbert off your hands.)
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